SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the mid/upper Ohio
Valley region, and late tonight from the south-central Plains to the
Ozarks.
...Upper Ohio Valley...
A surface warm front currently extends across central OH into
northern WV. This boundary will lift slowly northward today into
PA, with a warmer and marginally unstable air mass spreading into
those areas. Several 12z cams suggest the development of a few
thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening across
southeast OH, the northern panhandle of WV, and southwest PA.
Forecast soundings show sufficient elevated CAPE and cloud-bearing
shear to pose a risk of small hail and/or gusty winds in the
strongest cells. At this time, the risk of severe storms appears
low enough to keep probabilities less than 5%.
...OK/MO Vicinity...
After midnight tonight, showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are
expected to develop in a zone of intensifying low-level warm
advection over eastern OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest
AR. No severe storms are anticipated.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/27/2021
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