Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day4 to Tuesday/Day5...
A mid-level trough is forecast to amplify as it crosses the Gulf of
Mexico on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves
across the Gulf and into the northern Florida Peninsula near the end
of the period on Monday. More robust low-level moisture will advect
northward ahead of this surface low and overspread the entire
Peninsula. This will lead to weak to moderate instability by Tuesday
morning. Mid-range model guidance has trended more amplified with
the mid-level trough in the last few runs. However, there is still
uncertainty with the exact solution as the ECMWF has a more
consolidated wave and stronger surface low than the GFS, and thus a
greater severe weather threat.
...Wednesday/Day6 to Friday/Day8...
In the wake of the system which crosses the Florida Peninsula on
Tuesday/Day5, northerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico will keep
moisture well offshore and thus preclude severe probabilities on
Wednesday/Day6 and Thursday/Day7. Some moisture may start to advect
northward by Day 8, but there is still considerable uncertainty
regarding the upper-level pattern and the quality of moisture
return.
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