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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, December 17, 2021

SPC Dec 17, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day4 to Tuesday/Day5... A mid-level trough is forecast to amplify as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Gulf and into the northern Florida Peninsula near the end of the period on Monday. More robust low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of this surface low and overspread the entire Peninsula. This will lead to weak to moderate instability by Tuesday morning. Mid-range model guidance has trended more amplified with the mid-level trough in the last few runs. However, there is still uncertainty with the exact solution as the ECMWF has a more consolidated wave and stronger surface low than the GFS, and thus a greater severe weather threat. ...Wednesday/Day6 to Friday/Day8... In the wake of the system which crosses the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday/Day5, northerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico will keep moisture well offshore and thus preclude severe probabilities on Wednesday/Day6 and Thursday/Day7. Some moisture may start to advect northward by Day 8, but there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the upper-level pattern and the quality of moisture return. Read more LIVE:
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)