SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO AR...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across
parts of the Ark-La-Tex to Lower Mississippi Valley through this
afternoon.
...Northeast TX into AR today...
A midlevel ridge will persist over the Southeast, with the primary
belt of westerlies extending from the Great Basin to the Great
Lakes. The primary embedded/lead shortwave trough and deep surface
cyclone will move across ON/James Bay, while the associated trailing
cold front moves slowly southeastward today before stalling tonight
from the Mid South to the Ark-La-Tex. Mid 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support MLCAPE
up to 1500 J/kg from northeast TX into AR today ahead of the front.
A few thunderstorms are expected to continue through the day along
and south of the front, especially where pockets of surface heating
occur in cloud breaks. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will be
sufficient for supercells, but there will be a gradual weakening of
low-level shear through the afternoon as the primary shortwave
trough/cyclone pass well to the north and low-level mass response
diminishes. Thus, any severe threat is expected to remain low-end
through the day and then diminish by this evening.
Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop farther west into
southeast OK in a weak warm advection regime, but this elevated
convection should remain sub-severe.
..Thompson/Kerr.. 12/16/2021
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