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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, December 16, 2021

SPC Dec 16, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO AR... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ark-La-Tex to Lower Mississippi Valley through this afternoon. ...Northeast TX into AR today... A midlevel ridge will persist over the Southeast, with the primary belt of westerlies extending from the Great Basin to the Great Lakes. The primary embedded/lead shortwave trough and deep surface cyclone will move across ON/James Bay, while the associated trailing cold front moves slowly southeastward today before stalling tonight from the Mid South to the Ark-La-Tex. Mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg from northeast TX into AR today ahead of the front. A few thunderstorms are expected to continue through the day along and south of the front, especially where pockets of surface heating occur in cloud breaks. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will be sufficient for supercells, but there will be a gradual weakening of low-level shear through the afternoon as the primary shortwave trough/cyclone pass well to the north and low-level mass response diminishes. Thus, any severe threat is expected to remain low-end through the day and then diminish by this evening. Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop farther west into southeast OK in a weak warm advection regime, but this elevated convection should remain sub-severe. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 12/16/2021 Read more LIVE:
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