SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United
States on Monday or Monday Night.
...Synopsis...
An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move across the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday Night. As this trough
amplifies, surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf with a
surface low approaching the western Coast of Florida by 12Z Tuesday.
...Northern and central Florida...
A weakening cold front will be stalled somewhere near central
Florida on Monday morning. This front will start to lift northward
as a warm front through the day and into the overnight hours as a
strengthening surface low approaches from the west. Dewpoints are
expected to recover into the upper 60s across much of the Peninsula
by early Tuesday morning. As this area of low pressure moves closer,
hodographs are expected to enlarge with wind profiles favorable for
supercells and sufficient low-level shear to support some low-level
rotation. Differences in timing/evolution of the wave are the
primary limiting factors for severe probabilities at this time.
While at least a marginal severe threat is expected as the surface
low crosses the Florida Peninsula, it is still uncertain whether
sufficient instability and storm coverage will move onshore before
12Z Tuesday.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2021
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