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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Saturday, December 18, 2021

SPC Dec 18, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United States on Monday or Monday Night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday Night. As this trough amplifies, surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf with a surface low approaching the western Coast of Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Northern and central Florida... A weakening cold front will be stalled somewhere near central Florida on Monday morning. This front will start to lift northward as a warm front through the day and into the overnight hours as a strengthening surface low approaches from the west. Dewpoints are expected to recover into the upper 60s across much of the Peninsula by early Tuesday morning. As this area of low pressure moves closer, hodographs are expected to enlarge with wind profiles favorable for supercells and sufficient low-level shear to support some low-level rotation. Differences in timing/evolution of the wave are the primary limiting factors for severe probabilities at this time. While at least a marginal severe threat is expected as the surface low crosses the Florida Peninsula, it is still uncertain whether sufficient instability and storm coverage will move onshore before 12Z Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 12/18/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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