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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, December 13, 2021

SPC Dec 13, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 13 2021 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula, and over parts of the West Coast and northern California. ...Northern CA... Upper pattern will amplify today across the western CONUS as heights rise from the central High Plains into British Columbia ahead of a strong shortwave trough approaching the northern/central CA coast. Surface low associated with this shortwave trough is currently centered just off the central/southern OR coast. This low is expected to deepen throughout the day while gradually moving north-northeastward. A strongly forced frontal band associated with this system is forecast to move southeastward throughout the day, moving first through southwest/south-central OR and adjacent far northern CA later this morning before then moving through more of northern CA and the Bay Area later this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be modest and relatively shallow, keeping updraft depth limited and likely precluding anything but isolated lightning flashes. Even with the limited buoyancy and updraft depth, strong low-level flow accompanying the frontal band could contribute to storm-scale cyclonic shear/rotation. This is particularly true across portions of Sacramento Valley east of the Bay Area, where channeled low-level flow will be more southerly, contributing to strong low-level vertical shear. Even so, given the weak buoyancy and limited low-level moisture, the overall threat appears too low/conditional to outlook any areas. ...Elsewhere... Dry and stable conditions are anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is over the east-central FL coast, where a few westward moving thunderstorms may reach the coast. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 12/13/2021 Read more LIVE: