Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Friday as flow remains southwesterly across much of the central and eastern United States. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop late Friday afternoon along the northwestern edge of the moist sector from east Texas into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. Instability and shear is forecast to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat but anything more will be conditional upon how much destabilization takes place. On Saturday and Sunday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. Although strong deep-layer shear is forecast, instability should be very weak along the front suggesting the potential for severe weather will be minimal. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the cold front in the Gulf Coast states is forecast to move steadily eastward as an upper-level trough moves from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will again be possible along and ahead of the front before the front moves eastward into the Atlantic. Although much uncertainty exists in the forecast early next week, the models suggest that instability will be weak along the front. As a result, any severe weather potential should be minimized. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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