Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Mon Dec 13 2021 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front Thursday afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat will be possible in parts of the Arklatex and east Texas as weak instability peaks in the afternoon. On Friday and Saturday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorm development will be possible from late Friday afternoon through the evening along the northwestern edge of the moist sector near a front from central Texas northeastward into the Arklatex. The potential for thunder could linger into Saturday across the eastern half of Texas as the front moves southeastward. Instability on Friday and Saturday is forecast to be too weak for anything more than a marginal severe threat. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... Considerable uncertainty exists on Sunday and Monday. Model forecasts differ on the speed of an upper-level trough moving through southern part of the country. As the trough moves eastward into the Gulf Coast States sometime on Sunday night or Monday, a severe threat will be possible along or near an associated cold front. Weak instability is forecast along the front suggesting any severe threat would be marginal and conditional. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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