Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that several strengthening perturbations will emerge late this week through next weekend, from a strong mid/upper jet initially rounding the crest of broad ridging (across the eastern Pacific through the northern U.S. Great Plains), into broad troughing (east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic). As they dig through the mid-level troughing, it appears that they will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley and parts of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, it appears that another intrusion of cold/dry air will overspread most areas east of the Rockies by late next weekend. Preceding the cold front, latest guidance is suggestive that a corridor of modest destabilization is possible on Friday, associated with boundary-layer moisture return along a weak surface trough, roughly near/east of the Interstate 35 corridor of south central through north central/northeast Texas. This may coincide with increasing forcing for ascent, associated with a perturbation emerging from persistent weak upper troughing across the subtropical eastern Pacific/northern Mexican Plateau, to support some risk for strong thunderstorm development. Although a mid-level speed maximum might contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection (given sufficient destabilization), low-level wind fields are forecast to remain generally weak, which probably will tend to minimize the severe weather potential. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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