SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... To the north of weak mid-level troughing within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, it appears that a fairly prominent mid-level ridge will continue to build inland of the Pacific coast, through the Great Basin, during this period. This is forecast to occur as a strong mid/upper jet rounds its crest, across the central Canadian/U.S. border area into the upper Mississippi Valley. On the southern periphery of this jet, a substantive lower/mid-level moisture return is possible into the western slopes of the Washington Cascades, with more modest moistening in a plume extending across the northern Rockies and, at mid-levels, into parts of the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley. This moistening, coupled with lift associated with weak perturbations embedded within the broadly anticyclonic regime, may contribute to layers of very weak destabilization Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, this appears likely to remain largely capped by warm layers aloft, precluding an appreciable risk for thunderstorm development. Farther east, in the wake of a deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone forecast to migrate north/northeast of the Canadian Maritimes, mid-level flow might trend a bit more zonal. However, it still appears that it will remain at least broadly cyclonic and confluent across the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic, with potentially cool surface ridging being maintained across much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Some low-level moistening might occur across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas Tuesday through Tuesday night, but this is forecast to remain generally confined to a relatively shallow surface-based layer. ..Kerr.. 11/29/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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