SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A broad upper trough is moving across the MS Valley, with an embedded shortwave trough rotating into LA/MS/AL. Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tonight ahead of the associated cold front as it moves across the Gulf Coast and TN Valley regions, and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic late tonight. ...AL... The one area of some concern for more robust convection will be over parts of AL this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sun and moderate heating occurring. Low-level moisture is not particularly high and CAM solutions suggest that convection along the front will fail to become well-organized. However, southwesterly low-level winds will be rather strong in this region, supporting a risk of gusty thunderstorm winds if a cell or two can develop bowing structures. This area will continue to be monitored for an upgrade to MRGL in the afternoon update. ...VA/MD/PA... Very strong wind fields and strong frontogenesis may help to increase the risk of gusty winds as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region late tonight. Present indications are that the main risk will begin around 12z, so will not include severe wind probabilities for this area at this time. ..Hart/Smith.. 11/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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