SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast through tonight. ...Deep South/TN Valley to Southeast and Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Nonzero, but very low severe potential is evident during the period. Broad and weakening convective plume from IL to southeast TX should evolve into a more broken swath through midday. Thunderstorms have largely become confined to the southeast TX area, where a locally strong wind gust is possible until the line clears the coast. Pockets of more robust boundary-layer heating are expected ahead of the precip swath in the Deep South, where just-in-time moisture return might yield a corridor of weak surface-based buoyancy with MLCAPE near 500 J/kg. This may narrowly overlap the southern extent of stronger 850-mb flow in the AL vicinity where adequate around 40-kt effective bulk shear will exist as the Upper Midwest longwave trough amplifies. Some intensification along residual convective outflow might occur with low probability for a weakly rotating updraft. Where stronger low-level winds will be present with northern extent in the TN Valley, a low-topped line of showers should evolve amid scant buoyancy with minimal thunderstorm potential. Substantially weaker low-level flow behind the line suggests convective wind gust potential will be limited. Low-level moistening from off the south Atlantic Coast should support meager surface-based buoyancy expanding overnight across the eastern Carolinas into parts of VA. Some amplification of low-level winds is expected east of the central and southern Appalachians as a vigorous shortwave impulse progresses from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes. This may overlap the northern extent of the scant buoyancy plume and render potential for a weakly rotating storm or two. Damaging wind and tornado probabilities at this time still appear to be less than 5 and 2 percent respectively. ..Grams.. 11/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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