SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... ...AL... Overall forecast reasoning outlined in the previous outlook (appended below) remains unchanged. Updrafts have been relatively transient thus far, but a few more robust updrafts have recently developed. Instability continues to be limited by warm temperatures aloft, which should keep coverage and duration of any strong to severe storm low. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates could still result in a few damaging wind gusts. ...VA/MD/PA... Consolidation/organization of a strongly forced, shallow convective line is expected to begin early tomorrow morning (9Z to 12Z) across eastern PA, central/eastern MD, and southeastern VA. At this time, it still looks like the main risk will occur after 12Z, with any strong gusts remaining too localized to introduce any wind probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/11/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021/ A broad upper trough is moving across the MS Valley, with an embedded shortwave trough rotating into LA/MS/AL. Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tonight ahead of the associated cold front as it moves across the Gulf Coast and TN Valley regions, and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic late tonight. ...AL... The one area of some concern for more robust convection will be over parts of AL this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sun and moderate heating occurring. Low-level moisture is not particularly high and CAM solutions suggest that convection along the front will fail to become well-organized. However, southwesterly low-level winds will be rather strong in this region, supporting a risk of gusty thunderstorm winds if a cell or two can develop bowing structures. This area will continue to be monitored for an upgrade to MRGL in the afternoon update. ...VA/MD/PA... Very strong wind fields and strong frontogenesis may help to increase the risk of gusty winds as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region late tonight. Present indications are that the main risk will begin around 12z, so will not include severe wind probabilities for this area at this time. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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