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Monday, October 4, 2021

SPC Oct 4, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind are possible across most of Arizona on Tuesday afternoon and early evening. A risk for marginally severe hail may develop over parts of Mississippi/Alabama Tuesday afternoon. ...AZ... A closed mid-level low, initially near San Diego, will weaken as it moves northeast and evolve into a trough before reaching UT overnight Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterly flow will overspread AZ during the day. Adequately moist low levels, featuring 50s boundary-layer dewpoints south of the Mogollon Rim, will combine with relatively cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating to yield weak to moderate buoyancy (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Additionally, the strong wind profile will support organized storm structures, including the possibility for a marginal supercell or two and some organization to linear convection. Large hail could accompany the stronger updrafts and locally severe gusts are also possible. This activity will probably continue towards the Four Corners late Tuesday night but weaken as instability wanes. ...Southeast... General thunderstorms are forecast for much of the Southeast to the East Coast in association with a mid-level low over the lower MS Valley. Storm coverage will likely peak during the diurnal heating cycle. In association with the 500 mb cold pocket over MS (-14 to -16 deg C), a couple of afternoon storms could yield a risk for marginally severe hail. This activity will weaken by the early evening. ..Smith.. 10/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov