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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, October 4, 2021

SPC Oct 4, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 AM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Central Gulf Coast to the Southern Appalachians... A shortwave impulse over eastern OK will deepen slightly as it settles into the Lower MS Valley tonight. A weak frontal zone will slowly slide southward across parts of the TN Valley to coastal LA through the period. A richly moist air mass will persist ahead of this front across the central Gulf Coast and parts of the Deep South. As pockets of modest boundary-layer heating occur, scattered thunderstorms are anticipated towards midday through the afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates coupled with weak low-level flow beneath modest 500-mb west-southwesterlies should curtail an organized severe threat. Some guidance suggest that a subtle increase in low-level flow may occur across the western FL Panhandle and coastal AL vicinity overnight as weak mid-level height falls overspread the region ahead of the Lower MS Valley low. Regenerative late-period convection may occur within this regime, near and just off the coast. Any damaging wind/brief tornado potential appears negligible enough to mitigate a delineation this outlook cycle. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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