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Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data updated 24-48 hours after end of each day. MOBILE CHGOWX.COM ...
Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Weather conditions with Moon are O'Hare (official).

Monday, October 4, 2021

SPC Oct 4, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the eastern US and parts of the southwest. ...Discussion... Weak 12hr mid-level height falls are expected across the lower MS Valley during the day1 period as an upper trough settles south across the AR/LA/MS region tomorrow night. This southward-moving trough will force a weak frontal zone to orient itself from the TN Valley, south along the MS/AL border into southeast LA by mid day. Greatest moisture plume will extend along/just east of this boundary which will provide adequate buoyancy for scattered convection despite the poor lapse-rate environment. Some stronger 500mb flow should translate into the base of this digging trough over LA, but forecast wind profiles over the warm/moist sector remain weakly sheared through the period. As a result, the prospect for severe, or even robust, thunderstorms appears low. Farther west across southern CA/AZ, mid-levels are expected to moisten ahead of an upper low off the CA/Baja Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest parcels may saturate around 700mb, and parcels lifted from this level would yield several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, more than adequate for lightning within the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Karstens.. 10/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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