SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the eastern US and parts of the southwest. ...Discussion... Weak 12hr mid-level height falls are expected across the lower MS Valley during the day1 period as an upper trough settles south across the AR/LA/MS region tomorrow night. This southward-moving trough will force a weak frontal zone to orient itself from the TN Valley, south along the MS/AL border into southeast LA by mid day. Greatest moisture plume will extend along/just east of this boundary which will provide adequate buoyancy for scattered convection despite the poor lapse-rate environment. Some stronger 500mb flow should translate into the base of this digging trough over LA, but forecast wind profiles over the warm/moist sector remain weakly sheared through the period. As a result, the prospect for severe, or even robust, thunderstorms appears low. Farther west across southern CA/AZ, mid-levels are expected to moisten ahead of an upper low off the CA/Baja Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest parcels may saturate around 700mb, and parcels lifted from this level would yield several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, more than adequate for lightning within the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Karstens.. 10/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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