SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Oct 03 2021 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Lower MI to MS/AL... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will slowly decay as it shifts east across the lower Midwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this trough within a rich moisture plume characterized by 1.50-1.75 inch PW values from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. This activity should become increasingly numerous as pockets of modest boundary layer heating occur, yielding a fairly extensive swath of broken convection this afternoon. Modest MLCAPE is anticipated as mid-level lapse rates will generally remain poor, as sampled by 12Z soundings. A belt of 30-35 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies should largely become centered across parts of the TN to OH Valleys at peak heating, atop generally weak and veered low-level flow. While nonzero potential exists for locally strong gusts and small hail with weak/transient mid-level organization, the probability of either hazard reaching 5% severe coverage is unlikely over such an expansive portion of the east-central states. It is possible that later outlooks may be able to discern a corridor of cat 1/Marginal Risk within this broad, low potential region. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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