SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 03 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Discussion... Central Plains upper low has shifted into west-central MO early this morning. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it tracks across the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley by 04/00z. Somewhat stronger 500mb flow will translate through the base of the trough across the TN Valley later today which will strengthen shear profiles a bit; however, weak surface heating due to extensive cloudiness and scattered showers will limit instability. Latest model guidance, including the HREF, suggests MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg from southern lower MI-western KY-MS-central Gulf Coast. This corridor is the primary zone where scattered storms are expected but poor lapse rates do not favor robust updrafts. A few storms may organize across the TN Valley as shear strengthens ahead of the short wave, but thermodynamic environment does not support any appreciable threat of severe wind gusts or hail. ..Darrow/Karstens.. 10/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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