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Friday, October 22, 2021

SPC Oct 22, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Storms may pose a risk for mainly isolated large hail Saturday night across northeast Kansas and western Missouri. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Scattered to numerous storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning along the KS/OK border into southwestern MO in association with a southwesterly low-level jet. This activity may pose a continued threat for marginally severe hail for the first few hours of the period before diminishing as the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these morning storms, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward across the southern/central Plains in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting eastward over the western CONUS. At the surface, a low should gradually deepen from the central High Plains into central KS by late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. A warm front will lift northward across KS through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward across the central/southern High Plains through the day. The increasing low-level moisture in tandem with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should result in the development of 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE along and north of the warm front Saturday evening. The surface-based warm sector across KS will probably remain capped through Saturday afternoon given very weak large-scale ascent during the day. Still, a surface-based storm or two may initiate along/near the dryline or warm front by early Saturday evening across southwestern into south-central KS. If a storm develops in this area, all severe hazards appear possible. Otherwise, greater confidence exists that mainly elevated storms will occur Saturday night across north-central/northeastern KS and western/central MO as MUCAPE increases north of the warm front in tandem with a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Around 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear should prove favorable for organized updrafts, including the potential for a few supercells capable of producing isolated large hail early in the convective cycle. These elevated storms should eventually grow into an arcing band of convection by early Sunday morning while continuing to pose a threat for marginally severe hail. ...Southern High Plains... A high-based storm or two may initiate off the dryline from parts of the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK by late Saturday afternoon. If storms occur, they would encounter a moderately unstable airmass and around 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear. Mainly multicells capable of producing occasional hail and severe wind gusts may occur through the early evening before increasing convective inhibition decreases the threat. With the late arrival of ascent associated with the shortwave trough approaching from the west, the number of storms, if any, that can develop remains highly uncertain. Have therefore maintained the rather conditional Marginal Risk for hail/wind across this region with no changes. ..Gleason.. 10/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SB72HW