SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia today. Hail may also occur across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma late tonight. ...Eastern North Carolina/far southeast Virginia... A subtle mid-level impulse and cyclonically curved westerlies will influence the region ahead of a more substantial clipper-type shortwave trough over the Midwest. As this occurs, a cold front will continue to slowly advance east-southeastward across the region. A modestly moist air mass with lower 60s F surface dewpoints precedes the front. Scattering clouds will allow for moderate heating/destabilization into early/mid-afternoon, with upwards of 1250-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible particularly across eastern North Carolina. Where storms develop and intensify, around 30-35 kt of effective shear will contribute to multicells and possibly some weak transient supercell structures, mainly across far northeast North Carolina. Localized wind damage may occur with the strongest storms this afternoon through early evening. ...Oklahoma/southern Kansas toward Ozarks... Shortwave ridging will influence the region as weak cyclogenesis occurs across the southern High Plains and as air mass modification occurs over the southern Plains, with a warm front developing north-northeastward across the region tonight. Initially, a stray thunderstorm or two cannot be conclusively ruled out this afternoon near the Caprock Escarpment/Low Rolling Plains near the weak surface trough/dryline, although the overall potential for deep convection should remain low. Even if a storm would develop, vertical shear will be limited to 25-30 kt. The most probable scenario across the region will be for storms to develop late tonight, perhaps in multiple waves, across northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into southern Missouri/northwest Arkansas. These storms will be influenced by increasing warm/moist advection atop the stable boundary layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the presence of adequate shear through the cloud-bearing layer, could support some storms capable of severe hail, particularly across north-central Oklahoma and south-central/southeast Kansas into far southwest Missouri. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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