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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, October 22, 2021

SPC Oct 22, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may pose a risk for mostly isolated large hail Saturday night primarily across northeast Kansas. ...Central through eastern Kansas... Low-amplitude shortwave trough will reach the southern High Plains Saturday night contributing to lee cyclogenesis. Early Saturday a warm front will extend from the surface low near the OK Panhandle, southeastward through central and southeast OK. Elevated storms with some threat for hail should be in progress within the zone of ascent north of this boundary, primarily across southeast KS into southwest MO. The low will deepen and move slowly northeast into western KS with the approach of the shortwave trough Saturday night, while the warm front lifts north into southern KS. A dryline will mix eastward through west TX and OK during the day before retreating overnight. Partially modified Gulf air will advect northward beneath a plume of 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. The KS warm sector will probably remain capped given only modest forcing along the warm front during the day. However, there is some chance that a surface based storm or two might initiate over south central or southwest KS. Greater confidence exists that storms will develop overnight as isentropic ascent and destabilization increases north of the warm front in association with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Moderate instability and 35-45 kt effective bulk shear will support a threat for elevated supercells capable of isolated large hail before storms evolve into an MCS. ...Southern High Plains... A few high-based storms might initiate along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK during the afternoon. This activity will develop within an environment characterized by moderate instability and 25-35 kt effective bulk shear supportive of mainly multicells. A few instances of hail and downburst winds may occur before activity diminishes during the evening. ..Dial.. 10/22/2021 Read more LIVE:
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)