SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of far southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina today. Hail may also occur across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma during the overnight period. ...Far Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today with southwest mid-level flow remaining along the eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the eastern foothills of the Appalachians. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front across much the central and eastern Carolinas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop this afternoon as surface temperature warm in the eastern Carolinas. In addition to the instability, thunderstorms that form just ahead of the front will have access to moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates. For this reason, a marginal wind-damage threat can be expected to develop, especially in areas that heat up the most. ...Southeast Kansas/Northern Oklahoma... An upper-level ridge will move eastward across the Rockies today as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. Low-level moisture advection will take place across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. The moisture advection will continue into the overnight period as a low-level jet develops across the southern Plains. The exit region of the low-level jet should be in southeast Kansas by late evening, where lift will be favorable for thunderstorms. The potential for thunderstorm development should increase during the overnight period as the low-level jet strengthens, but the storms will be elevated due to a surface temperature inversion. The RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with the instability mostly above 800 mb. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35 to 40 kt of effective shear should be enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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