SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible this evening in parts of the central Appalachians, and from parts of north-central Alabama into the southern Appalachians. ...Central Appalachians... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is located in the upper Ohio Valley with a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture across West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. A line of thunderstorms is located along this corridor, where the RAP is showing weak instability with MLCAPE estimated in the 100 to 300 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs have strong deep-layer shear suggesting that a marginal wind-damage threat may persist for another hour or so. Strong wind gusts will be possible along parts of the line that remain semi-organized. ...North-central Alabama into Southern Appalachians... An upper-level trough is present on water vapor imagery across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located in middle Tennessee with a moist airmass ahead of the front. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from north-central Alabama into far southeast Tennessee. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate deep-layer shear suggesting that a marginal wind-damage threat could continue for another hour or so this evening. The stronger multicells may be capable of producing a few marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 10/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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