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Monday, October 18, 2021

SPC Oct 18, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... An upper low which has lingered over the northeastern U.S. and adjacent eastern Canada will continue drifting across northern New England and the Maritimes Tuesday, while a second low crossing the Intermountain West advances steadily eastward into the Plains. Meanwhile, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest vicinity overnight, as it takes on negative tilt and turns northeastward. At the surface, a weak low and trailing cold front will shift across the central Plains, ahead of the upper low shifting out of the Rockies. Return of moisture ahead of this front will be modest, and of poor quality, resulting in rather weak instability above a generally stable boundary layer. In the West, a front will move onshore across northern California/Oregon/Washington ahead of the Pacific upper system. Showers -- and a few lightning strikes -- should spread onshore overnight in the Northwest ahead of this system. Showers and a few thunderstorms may also spread northwestward into coastal portions of southeast Texas and eastward to near Mobile Bay. Showers and a few lightning strikes will spread across the South Dakota vicinity in tandem where weak instability at mid levels is expected due to cool air aloft associated with the upper low. Finally, isolated, elevated storms may develop near the advancing cold front overnight, from eastern Kansas northeastward into the Upper Midwest. While small hail may occur with this convection, risk for hail approaching severe levels appears minimal at this time. As such, severe weather is not expected across the U.S. through Wednesday morning. ..Goss.. 10/18/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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