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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, October 18, 2021

SPC Oct 18, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, shifting into western Canada with time and leaving a broad area of ridging to prevail over the western half of the country. Meanwhile, an upper low initially progged over South Dakota/Nebraska will move eastward, crossing the Mississippi Valley and moving into the Midwest overnight. Downstream, ridging will prevail, as the last remnants of cyclonic flow finally vacate New England. At the surface, the primary feature will be a low progged to shift across the Upper Midwest, and its trailing cold front that should reach a position from the Middle Ohio Valley to coastal southeastern Texas by Thursday morning. Showers and scattered to isolated, mainly elevated thunderstorms will accompany the advance of this surface system, and its parent upper low. A this time, it appears that instability near and ahead of the front will be generally modest, above a likely-to-remain-stable boundary layer. As such, while small hail will be possible with stronger storms crossing the Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity during the period, any potential for hail approaching severe levels appears too low to warrant consideration of a risk area. ..Goss.. 10/18/2021 Read more LIVE:
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)