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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, October 17, 2021

SPC Oct 18, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... Outside of a few rather localized areas, dry and/or stable conditions prevail across much of the U.S., and the risk for thunderstorms appears likely to remain generally negligible through tonight. ...South Florida and the Keys... Ahead of a southward advancing cold front, a moist and potentially unstable boundary-layer layer lingers. However, relatively warm and subsident mid-levels have precluded deep convective development across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Mid-level inhibition might be marginally weaker across the Keys into the Florida Straits, where there still appears low probabilities for a couple of thunderstorms this evening. ...Lower Great Lakes... The 18/00Z raob from Buffalo indicates only very weak conditional instability beneath relatively cold mid-level air associated with the large-scale upper troughing. However, low-level lapse rates may be a bit steeper out over Lakes Erie and Ontario. As forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation digging south-southeast of Georgian Bay/Lake Huron begin impacting the region later this evening, some convection capable of producing lightning might not be out of the question. ..Kerr.. 10/18/2021 Read more LIVE: