SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. No changes were made to the existing outlook. Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible near Lakes Erie and Ontario as shallow lake-effect convection persists, and perhaps across far southern FL with the aid of further heating. ..Jewell.. 10/17/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ ...Far south FL... A few showers should develop in the late afternoon and persist into this evening along a southward-sagging cold front. Relatively warm/dry temperatures around 600-mb owing to mild mid-level subsidence should limit updraft strength. But a brief thunderstorm or two is possible across the southern tip of the peninsula and the Keys. ...Lower Great Lakes... Lake-enhanced scattered low-topped showers are expected to persist into tonight on the backside of the amplified mid/upper trough over southeast Canada and the Northeast States. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support sporadic lightning flashes until mid-level temperatures gradually warm from west to east. ...Northern CA... A vigorous shortwave trough off the northern CA coast will move inland this evening through tonight. A pronounced mid-level cold pocket (around -25 C at 500 mb) will overspread the area and steepen lapse rates. Low-topped thunderstorm potential is expected to be confined offshore given the dearth of boundary-layer moisture initially across the region (PW values of 0.25-0.50 inches sampled in 12Z soundings). Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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