SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Oct 01 2021 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... Small to marginally severe hail is possible across parts of southeast New Mexico to west Texas from mid-afternoon into early evening. ...Southeast NM and west TX... A closed mid/upper low over northwest NM will evolve into an open wave as it moves east into the southern High Plains through tonight. Attendant belt of 35-45 kt 500-mb flow will become centered across northern Chihuahua to the TX South Plains this afternoon. In the wake of extensive convective overturning yesterday into the overnight across parts of west to central TX, buoyancy will be more limited today. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the southeast NM and TX South Plains area but buoyancy will be weak owing to a cool boundary layer. Small to marginally severe hail is possible with later afternoon thunderstorms that spread off the Sacramento Mountains. Farther south across the Lower Pecos Valley, low 60s surface dew points may be sustained at peak heating, supporting a narrow overlap of modest MLCAPE/shear. A supercell or two with mid-level rotation might develop off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and spread east. But relatively weaker mid-level lapse rates should hold peak hail magnitudes to marginal severe. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/01/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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