Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, October 1, 2021

SPC Oct 1, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Oct 01 2021 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... Small to marginally severe hail is possible across parts of southeast New Mexico to west Texas from mid-afternoon into early evening. ...Southeast NM and west TX... A closed mid/upper low over northwest NM will evolve into an open wave as it moves east into the southern High Plains through tonight. Attendant belt of 35-45 kt 500-mb flow will become centered across northern Chihuahua to the TX South Plains this afternoon. In the wake of extensive convective overturning yesterday into the overnight across parts of west to central TX, buoyancy will be more limited today. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the southeast NM and TX South Plains area but buoyancy will be weak owing to a cool boundary layer. Small to marginally severe hail is possible with later afternoon thunderstorms that spread off the Sacramento Mountains. Farther south across the Lower Pecos Valley, low 60s surface dew points may be sustained at peak heating, supporting a narrow overlap of modest MLCAPE/shear. A supercell or two with mid-level rotation might develop off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and spread east. But relatively weaker mid-level lapse rates should hold peak hail magnitudes to marginal severe. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/01/2021 Read more LIVE: