SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.... CORRECTED TO REMOVE THUNDER AREA IN WASHINGTON ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough continues to move eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast states, with an associated surface cold front extending from western NY/PA into KY. The air mass ahead of the front is relatively moist and unstable with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to range from 500 J/kg in the Hudson Valley, to over 2000 J/kg in Delmarva region. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along and ahead of the front by mid-late afternoon. Low and mid-level vertical shear is sufficient for some risk of a supercell or two early, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a tornado or two. Convection will likely organize into lines and bowing structures through the early evening, with a continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. ...FL/GA... Scattered thunderstorms will affect portions of the FL Panhandle and southern GA this afternoon and tonight, as a tropical disturbance moves ashore. Some strengthening of the low-level winds could result in gusty/damaging winds, waterspouts, or brief tornadoes in this region this afternoon and tonight. ...Central TX... A weak and convectively-enhanced shortwave trough is tracking southwestward across north-central TX. Lift ahead of this system may produce scattered afternoon thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...Southern AZ... Most 12z CAM solutions indicate that scattered thunderstorms will form over southern AZ later this afternoon, in a region of strong heating and moderate MLCAPE. A deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with 30-40 knots of easterly mid-level winds may result in a few damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. ..Hart.. 09/08/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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