SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible into late evening across parts of the the Northeast, with locally damaging wind gusts the primary potential severe hazard. Otherwise, Tropical Storm Mindy may be accompanied by some risk for a tornado or two across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern Florida tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... As a substantive short wave trough digs southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley tonight, models indicate some further amplification of mid-level troughing along a positively-tilted to neutral axis, southeast of Hudson Bay through areas near/west of the southern Appalachians. Stronger low-level flow, associated with the primary surface cyclone migrating north-northeastward to the east of James Bay, will continue to develop northward across northern New England through eastern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. However, a belt of moderate to strong, cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow is enhancing deep-layer shear, near a narrow pre-frontal corridor of lingering weak to moderate boundary-layer instability across western New England southward into areas across and to the east of the northern Blue Ridge Mountains. This may contribute to the maintenance of vigorous thunderstorm development posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts into late evening. Farther south, weaker mid-level troughing extends into the western Gulf of Mexico, with Tropical Storm Mindy embedded within weak southwesterly flow east of the mid-level trough axis. As the low-level cyclonic circulation center migrates across the Florida Big Bend through the southern Georgia/northern Florida state border vicinity overnight, low-level shear may strengthen sufficiently to support convection posing at least some risk for an isolated tornado or two to its northeast and east. ..Kerr.. 09/09/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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