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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, September 8, 2021

SPC Sep 8, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of low-amplitude upper shortwave troughs will move across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity to the Northeast Sat-Sun/Day 4-5. Some thunderstorm activity is expected as a surface cold front shifts south/southeast across the mid-MO/upper MS Valley vicinity, as well as across the Northeast. However, quality of boundary-layer moisture is uncertain. A relatively dry air mass will be in place across much of the central/eastern U.S. due to a prior cold frontal passage (from the Day 2 period) and stronger Gulf return flow is not expected until later in the forecast period. By Mon/Day 6, a more amplified upper pattern may emerge as a trough digs across the western U.S. As this occurs, a lee surface trough should develop over the High Plains. This will aid in stronger southerly return flow, and moisture will begin overspreading the Plains into the Midwest. Severe potential may increase as the western trough ejects eastward through the end of the forecast period. However, medium-range guidance varies considerably with the timing of the larger-scale trough ejecting eastward as well as in the strength of the trough. As such, predictability is too low for severe probs at this time. Read more LIVE:
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)