SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S...AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over portions of the Northeast U.S. today, and the Upper Midwest tonight. ...NY/New England... A strong and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across eastern Ontario and into New England. Large-scale forcing for ascent has resulted in clusters/lines of showers and thunderstorms across eastern NY, which will move across central/northern New England this afternoon. As temperatures warm into the 70s, steepening low-level lapse rates may be sufficient for downward transfer of mid-level winds, resulting in isolated damaging wind gusts. Cool temperatures aloft may also promote a risk of small hail. However, limited instability/moisture and relatively weak low-level flow suggest the overall severe threat will remain marginal. ...Upper Midwest... Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive shortwave trough over southwest Saskatchewan. This feature will move rapidly eastward and help to produce scattered thunderstorms tonight over portions of ND/MN into western Lake Superior. It appears likely that most of this activity will be elevated, but one or two cells may become sufficiently intense to produce hail or gusty winds. The primary risk of strong storms will be in the 03-09z time frame. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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