SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and during the early evening over northeast New Mexico. ...Upper Midwest... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a mid-level shortwave trough over southern Manitoba moving east towards Lake Superior by early morning. Moisture return ahead of a cold front has remained limited (50s surface dewpoints) but cool mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates will yield sufficient MUCAPE (400 J/kg per the 00z International Falls raob) for robust updrafts. It seems likely the isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms that are expected to develop will be elevated, but some of the stronger storms could result in an isolated hail/wind risk. ...Northeast NM... The risk for a severe thunderstorm or two may continue for the next hour or so with storms that developed near the Raton Mesa and have moved south. Adequate deep-layer shear and instability for a short-lived supercell threat could yield a localized hail/wind threat before this activity dissipates by mid evening. ..Smith.. 09/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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