Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...New England - Thursday/Day 4... An upper trough will overspread the Northeast on Thursday/Day 4. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of New England ahead of a surface cold front. Medium-range guidance continues to differ with the progression of the front across the region, resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty. If a slower eastward progression occurs, plenty of boundary-layer moisture will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization could occur amid sufficient vertical shear, supporting some potential for damaging gusts. However, some guidance shows the front moving across the region during the morning, and offshore by peak heating. If this occurs, severe potential will remain low. This uncertainty will preclude severe probabilities at this time. ...Elsewhere... Severe potential appears low for much of the rest of the forecast period. Surface high pressure will encompass much of the U.S. east of the Mississippi River though Friday/Day 5. This will confine Gulf moisture to the immediate Gulf coast vicinity as a front stalls over the northern Gulf. While a series of lower-amplitude upper shortwave troughs will migrate through northwesterly mid/upper flow across parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest in the Friday/Day 5-Sunday/Day 7 time frame, poor moisture return and generally weak forcing will limit severe potential through the weekend. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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