SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing mainly large hail and damaging winds gusts are possible today across the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest. ...North-central Plains/Upper Midwest... A somewhat complex convection evolution is expected today, partially complicated by ongoing early day convection. Most notably, a broad complex of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin, although other smaller-scale thunderstorm clusters are also ongoing across central/eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin MCS will continue to move eastward and encounter a more stable air mass, although areas of new storm initiation are anticipated later today westward and southwestward along the weak surface front, as the upper shortwave trough advances into the Plains during the afternoon. With a belt of enhanced (35-45 kt) low/mid-level southwesterly flow preceding the trough, aligned from the central High Plains/Texas Panhandle northeastward to the upper Mississippi Valley, sufficient vertical shear for storm organization will exist. Large hail will be possible with stronger updrafts, especially during the afternoon in association with more cellular convection, which currently appears most probable across east-central Nebraska and vicinity. However, the more substantial severe risk will likely be in the form of locally damaging winds, as storms grow upscale into one or more clusters during the evening, which is most probable across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa as well as northern Kansas/northwest Missouri. Farther south/southwest, more isolated and higher-based storms are expected from western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon and early evening hours. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible in these areas. ...Eastern Carolinas/southeast Virginia... An upper-level trough near the southern Appalachians early today will continue eastward and influence further thunderstorm development into the afternoon. However, ongoing early day convection and cloud cover should temper destabilization through peak heating, which will tend to limit today's overall severe potential. Regardless, a few locally severe storms capable of wind damage are possible. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 08/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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