SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday over parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley, and across central Montana. ...Lower MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley... A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move east out of the central Plains on Sunday, with a moist and unstable air mass extending into the MS Valley. A dryline will extend from eastern NE into central KS, with a convectively reinforced warm front over WI and Lower MI early. Pockets of enhanced midlevel wind in excess of 35 kt will exist with the upper wave, but deep-layer shear will generally be marginal for organized severe storms. However, instability will be strong, with substantial low-level southerly winds aiding storm relative inflow. Early day storms may be ongoing near a warm front from southern WI into Lower MI, but they are expected to weaken as the warm front develops northward. Scattered diurnal storms will develop by mid afternoon from eastern KS into MO and IA, moving into WI and IL toward 00Z. Lack of capping along with ample moisture and favorable time of day may result in numerous storm clusters, with mixed modes. The most likely severe threat will be damaging winds as storms will easily propagate along outflows in the moist, uncapped air mass. Marginal hail is possible with the initial development before storms grow upscale. Isolated tornado threat is less certain, and will depend on mesoscale features such as modified outflow boundaries near the warm front. Due to substantial storm coverage/interference and the marginal flow aloft, will maintain a broad region of low severe probabilities, with a more focused categorical upgrade possible in later outlooks. ...MT... A strong shortwave trough and cold front will move across MT during the day, with significant height falls across western and central MT through 00Z. Lift along the front and very steep lapse rates developing ahead of it will favor a line of convection despite only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, with the threat ending across east-central MT after 03Z as the air mass cools diurnally, and with the rapidly progressing cold front. ..Jewell.. 08/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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