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Monday, August 16, 2021

SPC Aug 16, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... CORRECTED TO CHANGE NE TO NV IN SECOND MAIN PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes associated with the remnants of tropical storm Fred will be possible Tuesday from northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas and southwest Virginia. Thunderstorms capable of a few downburst winds and hail are expected from parts of Utah into northern Arizona. ...Northeast Georgia through the western Carolinas and southwest Virginia... The remnant of tropical storm Fred (expected to become a depression later tonight) is forecast by the NHC to be located along the south central AL/GA border by 12Z Tuesday. The depression is then forecast to make a gradual turn to the northeast, moving through northern GA and into Southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday night. Satellite imagery indicates the storm is beginning to entrain some dry air from the southwest which suggests there may be some heating between convective bands supporting boundary layer destabilization tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms should undergo intensification within the outer bands as the atmosphere destabilizes. Large 0-1 km hodographs will support supercells with an accompanying threat for low-level mesocyclones and isolated tornadoes. The greatest threat for tornadoes will probably occur near afternoon peak heating from northeast GA into the western Carolinas. However, some threat will persist into the overnight as far north as western Virginia. ...Utah and northern Arizona... Upper trough will amplify across the Pacific NW into the northern Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday night accompanied by a cold front that will move into NV and northern UT during the late afternoon and evening. Moderate instability is expected in the pre-frontal warm sector and storms are expected to develop along and south of the front by mid to late afternoon. Vertical wind profiles with up to 45 kt effective bulk shear will support some supercell structures in central through northern UT with multicell storms farther south. Primary threats will be isolated damaging wind and hail. Will maintain MRGL risk category for this outlook, but a SLGT risk might be warranted in day 1 updates. ..Dial.. 08/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov