SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A threat for a couple of tornadoes may persist across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia this evening. Other storms may produce isolated severe wind gusts and some hail over parts of Arizona. ...Southeast... Tropical Storm Fred is forecast by the NHC to continue moving northward over the Southeast tonight while weakening. Plentiful low-level shear in the eastern half of Fred's circulation (see 00Z TLH sounding) will remain favorable for low-level rotation and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with any low-topped cells in outer rain bands this evening and tonight. However, the lack of appreciable destabilization inland today has hampered tornado potential thus far. With diurnal heating ending, it remains unclear whether sufficient boundary-layer instability will be present through the rest of the period to support surface-based storms across the FL Panhandle into southwestern GA. Regardless, have maintained a Slight Risk where the best low-level shear and weak instability should overlap with an outer rain band this evening, but confidence remains low. ...Southwest... A moist and moderately unstable airmass is present across the lower elevations of central/southern AZ. Modest northerly mid-level winds should support multiple small clusters of storms moving generally southward off the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of northern AZ this evening. Some hail may occur with the more isolated, discrete convection over the higher terrain, but damaging winds should become the main threat with time as clustering occurs given the very steep low-level lapse rates promoting efficient downdraft accelerations. ..Gleason.. 08/17/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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