SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF GULF COAST REGION...AND PARTS OF ARIZONA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM LINES ...SUMMARY... There is a threat for a few tornadoes across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia today. Other storms may produce isolated severe wind gusts and some hail from parts of the central and southern High Plains, Southwest, and northern Rockies. ...FL/AL/GA... TS Fred will move ashore this afternoon/evening over the FL peninsula, with bands of convection affecting the region. Local VAD profiles and model guidance show strong low-level shear profiles that are conditionally favorable for supercell structures and the risk of a few tornadoes. The threat should slowly spread northward into parts of southeast AL and southwest GA later today. Please refer to WW #441 and MCD #1532 for further details. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies are noted this morning over the mountains of northern/central AZ, where afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg are expected. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development as a shortwave trough over UT tracks southward. Models suggest that northerly mid-level winds will strengthen this afternoon around peak heating, helping to organize cold pools and propagate storms off the higher terrain into southern AZ. Damaging winds will be possible with the stronger cores. Given this scenario, have added a SLGT risk for parts of the region. ...MT... Strong heating is also occurring over the mountains of eastern ID and southwest MT. This area is beneath relatively strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains this afternoon and develop eastward into central MT this evening. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, coupled with sufficient CAPE for thunderstorms and strong winds aloft, will pose a risk of high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Moore.. 08/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/S5mGPk
