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Sunday, August 15, 2021

SPC Aug 15, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... The threat for isolated tornadoes is expected to increase across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia during the day Monday. Storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts from a portion of the central and southern Plains into the Southwest States. ...Southeast States... Tropical storm Fred is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to gradually make a more northward turn and move onshore along the western FL Panhandle by Monday evening. See latest advisories from NHC for more on Fred. Based on this forecast, threat for isolated tornadoes should gradually increase during the day east and northeast of the center as convection within the outer rainbands move inland. The degree of the tornado threat will depend in part on extent of cloud cover and ability to get some heating between the bands. An upgrade to SLGT risk may be warranted in day 1 updates as the mesoscale details regarding Fred become more evident. ...Southwest States... Mid to upper winds will become more northerly as the upper ridge shifts west. This will allow for several vorticity maxima to move southward into AZ and NM. Rich low-level moisture is in place with dewpoints in the 60s F, and afternoon heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms will likely initiate over the higher terrain and spread south and southwest, including into the desert valleys where upscale growth into organized multicell clusters is possible. Damaging wind will be the primary threat. An upgrade to SLGT might be warranted in day 1 updates, especially across southern AZ. ...Central and southern Plains... A few thunderstorms might still be ongoing over a portion of this region early Monday. Diabatic heating of the moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Additional storms may develop along a lee trough and in association with remnant outflow boundaries and MCVs. Southerly low-level winds veering to weak northerly flow aloft will support weak vertical shear, and promote multicell clusters spreading southward into the evening hours. Isolated damaging wind and some hail will be possible with the stronger storms. ..Dial.. 08/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov