SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible this evening into tonight over portions of the central Plains and Florida Gulf Coast. ...Central Plains... A widely spaced pair of supercells over KS produced multiple severe hail and wind reports over the past couple of hours, but they have recently weakened quite rapidly. North-northwesterly mid-level flow and a veering low-level wind profile should continue to foster around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear, supportive of updraft organization. It remains uncertain how much farther south any storms will develop across KS this evening, as convective inhibition will gradually increase with the loss of daytime heating. Regardless, an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts may continue in the short term with any storm that can be sustained. An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may also persist with loosely organized clusters of storms across east-central into southeastern CO and vicinity where a very well mixed boundary layer exists. Additional convective development along a low-level moist axis into parts of western NE appears highly uncertain owing to nebulous forcing for ascent aloft. Still, this area will experience a modestly strengthening southerly low-level jet this evening, and any storms that do form may pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ...Florida... Tropical Storm Fred is forecast by the NHC to move generally northward this evening/tonight across the eastern Gulf of Mexico while gradually strengthening. Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest that the enhanced low/mid-level flow in the eastern half of Fred's circulation will continue to remain mostly displaced offshore through the end of the period. Even so, an isolated strong wind gust and/or brief tornado cannot be ruled out in an outer rain band given some modest low-level flow and related shear along parts of the immediate FL Gulf Coast (see 00Z TBW sounding). ..Gleason.. 08/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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