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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, August 15, 2021

SPC Aug 15, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...AND FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central Plains, northwestern Arizona, and Florida Gulf Coast. ...Central Plains... Clear skies will result in strong heating this afternoon over much of western NE/KS and parts of eastern CO, with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s common. A weak shortwave trough currently moving across WY will help to initiate thunderstorms over these regions, including along the Palmer Ridge later today. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles with 40-50 degree T-Td spreads, along with sufficient northwesterly mid-level winds to pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Hail may also be possible in any rotating storms that can develop. ...FL... TS Fred is slowly organizing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The envelope of stronger low-level winds is expected to remain primarily offshore today, but there is some chance of a rotating storm and a brief tornado this afternoon along the west coast of central FL. That threat will also develop northward into the FL peninsula overnight tonight as the storm tracks northward. ...AZ... 12z CAM guidance remains consistent on the potential for a cluster of afternoon thunderstorms in the Grand Canyon region of northwest AZ. These storms will propagate southwestward into a hot/humid air mass during the evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 08/15/2021 Read more LIVE: