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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, August 14, 2021

SPC Aug 14, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk for a tornado or two might evolve along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula Sunday and possibly a portion of the Florida Panhandle Sunday night. A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail will be possible over a portion of the central Plains. ...Florida... A poorly organized tropical system is situated near northwest Cuba. This system is forecast by the NHC to strengthen to a depression by Sunday morning and finally to a tropical storm (Fred) as it moves farther north into the Gulf later Sunday afternoon or evening. The trend has been to shift the forecast track of Fred farther west. See latest NHC advisories on Fred. These trends suggest any tornado threat should remain confined to the west coast of the Peninsula, possibly reaching the FL Panhandle coast late in the period. ...Central Plains... A northwest flow regime will persist in this region, and a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move southeast during the period. At the surface a corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will persist across central NE, beneath the eastern periphery of the elevated mixed layer. As the boundary layer warms, MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg is likely during the afternoon. Some morning elevated storms may be in progress over a portion of NE and KS by 12Z Sunday and these could produce small to marginally severe hail. In wake of any early activity, isolated to widely scattered storms may develop along a lee trough and spread southeast from very late afternoon into the evening. Effective bulk shear from 30-35 kt may support weak mid-level updraft rotation, which in addition to steep lapse rates will support some risk for large hail. Inverted-V boundary layers will also promote a threat for isolated downburst winds. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage precludes more than a MRGL risk category at this time. ..Dial.. 08/14/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov