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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, August 14, 2021

SPC Aug 15, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible with storms across parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Multiple supercells that formed earlier today across western SD/NE have produced several reports of large to very large hail. A few supercells are ongoing early this evening across this region in an environment that should remain favorable for large hail and severe downdraft winds for a couple more hours this evening. There is uncertainty whether upscale growth can occur over the next few hours across the NE Panhandle and vicinity as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet strengthens. Convective inhibition will also increase in the same time frame, and the supercells remain rather widely spaced at the moment. If upscale growth into a small MCS does occur, then strong to severe wind gusts would become the main threat through the late evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 1527 for more details on the potential convective evolution across parts of the NE Panhandle into northeastern CO and northwestern KS. ...Arizona... Isolated storms have formed this evening along parts of the Mogollon Rim and over southeastern AZ. The airmass is not as unstable as yesterday across southern/central AZ, with latest mesoanalysis indicating convective inhibition rapidly increases with westward extent towards the CO River. Still, around 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly mid-level flow present on the 00Z PHX sounding will likely support some westward movement of these storms into the lower elevations this evening. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur before storms weaken later tonight. For more information on the near-term severe threat across AZ, see Mesoscale Discussion 1526. ...South Florida... The remnants of Fred are located well west of Key West FL this evening per the latest NHC advisory. The potential for low-level rotation in outer rain bands to the east of the remnant circulation appears quite limited tonight into early Sunday morning owing to weak instability and modest low-level shear. Accordingly, 2% tornado probabilities have been focused mainly over the Keys and parts of the south FL where a non zero chance of a brief tornado or strong wind gust may still exist. ....Virginia/North Carolina... Loosely organized clusters have recently weakened this evening across central into southern VA and adjacent NC as most of the unstable airmass across this region has been overturned. Accordingly, the overall strong/gusty wind potential is much reduced from earlier this afternoon. A weakening trend with storms is expected to continue this evening with the loss of daytime heating and increasing convective inhibition. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2021 Read more LIVE: