SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and New England. Isolated damaging gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central High Plains, as well as Arizona. Gusty thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two may be possible across portions of central and southern Florida. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a zone of clear skies across parts of central and southeast VA, where temperatures are rapidly rising into the 90s. A very moist low-level air mass is present, which will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Similar to yesterday, weak winds aloft should limit convective organization. However, pulse and disorganized multicell thunderstorms will affect the region later today, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a SLGT risk to parts of this region. ...NE... A small cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over southwest NE. New storms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon in vicinity of the Black Hills as a series of weak mid-level shortwave troughs move across the region. 12z CAM solutions (other than the HRRR) have come into more agreement of considerable thunderstorm coverage later today as storms spread south-southeastward into western NE. Sufficient vertical shear will support the risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Eastern New England... Thunderstorms will form this afternoon along a cold front moving across NH/ME. Broken clouds ahead of the front will somewhat limit heating/destabilization, but relatively strong winds aloft and dewpoints in the upper 60s may be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...FL... The remnants of Fred will continue to drift west-northwestward, with the northern fringes of storms wind fields affecting parts of south and southwest FL. Shear profiles are not particularly strong, but might be sufficient for transient supercell structures later this afternoon and tonight. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...AZ... The MCS that affected southern AZ last night appears to have significantly stabilized the boundary-layer, with temperatures only in the low-mid 70s as of 15z. Thunderstorms are likely to redevelop over the mountains again today, and the strongest cell will once again be capable of gusty winds and hail. But it appears the risk will be relatively localized. ..Hart/Moore.. 08/14/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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