SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and large hail are possible over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains area... Modest north-northwesterly mid to upper-level flow regime will encompass this region as a mid-level anticyclone remains over the Four Corners. A reservoir of low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints ranging through the 60s F, beneath modest (6.5-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon. A subtle disturbance is forecast to move south from KS into the TX Panhandle prior to sunset. Isolated to scattered storms will likely develop by the late afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a lee trough. Large directional shear will yield a wind profile supporting organized multicells. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will eventually transition to mainly a wind risk as storms grow upscale into one or two main clusters. Some of the latest convection-allowing model guidance indicates the wind risk may persist into the late evening hours over the South Plains and adjacent areas of eastern NM before diminishing late. ...Upper Midwest... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeast across the Upper Midwest during the period. A lagging cool front will move east over the Red River Valley and strong heating will lead to a destabilizing airmass over much of the area. Isolated storms may preferentially be associated with weak large-scale ascent associated with the disturbance but the overall focus for storm development will be limited---resulting in only isolated storm coverage. The stronger storms may be capable of a large hail/damaging gust threat before this activity weakens during the evening. ...Northeast NV into southern ID... A mid- to upper-level disturbance evident on water-vapor imagery Saturday night is forecast to move from near the CA/NV border east of the Sierra northeastward into southern ID during the period. A belt of slightly enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this feature. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of strong gusts given the very steep lapse rates and deep/dry sub-cloud layer. ..Smith/Marsh.. 07/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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