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Saturday, July 3, 2021

SPC Jul 3, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Dakotas this afternoon into evening. ...Discussion... Previous forecast appears on track with primary severe threat expected to evolve over the central High Plains with storms moving east off the higher terrain into a corridor of moderate instability. Multicells capable of locally strong to damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats later this afternoon into the evening. Farther north across ND, tendency has been for the stronger forcing for ascent accompanying a shortwave trough to outpace and move east of the corridor of greater instability and near-surface moisture. Storms might still intensify and pose some severe risk over eastern ND and western MN in association with this feature later this afternoon and evening. However, given the less than optimal phasing and the weak to modest kinematic environment, will maintain MRGL risk category for this update. ..Dial.. 07/03/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021/ ...Central High Plains/Dakotas... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV will continue northeastward over North Dakota today and reach northwest Minnesota this evening, while modest-strength northwesterly mid-level winds otherwise become increasingly prevalent across the High Plains by peak heating. Some sharpening of lee-side troughing should occur today, particularly across the central High Plains. Thunderstorms should initially develop near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and Black Hills vicinity this afternoon and spread east-southeastward across the adjacent High Plains through late afternoon. These storms are likely to intensify as they encounter a warm/well-mixed and moderately unstable boundary layer characterized by MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective shear will be strongest across eastern Colorado with aid of stronger near-anvil northwesterly winds. Regardless, multicells will be prevalent and storms should regionally tend to cluster into southeastward-moving segments by early evening. Multiple sub-regional corridors of storms capable of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts can be expected through mid/late evening. Farther north, another corridor of potential severe thunderstorm development will be across eastern North Dakota in close proximity to the MCV. MCV-related forcing for ascent and some low/mid-level enhancement to wind profiles could influence severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon. That said, short-term questions persist regarding boundary-layer moisture quality and the degree of mixing through peak heating, which casts uncertainty regarding the timing/likelihood of severe storms and tornado potential. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov