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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, July 3, 2021

SPC Jul 3, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of strong to severe gusts and large hail are possible over the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. ...Central and Southern High Plains area... Rich low-level moisture with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will persist over the southern High Plains beneath modest (6.5-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability (generally 2000-2500 J/kg) as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. The northeastern periphery of the upper ridge will break down further as a shortwave trough moves southward into the southern Plains during the afternoon accompanied by a belt of stronger mid-level winds with 30-35 kt at 500 mb. Storms are expected to once again develop over the higher terrain and spread southeast. A separate area of thunderstorm development might also occur farther east in association with the vorticity maximum and along a weak lee trough. Southerly low-level winds beneath the belt of stronger mid-level flow accompanying the shortwave trough will contribute to generally 30-40 kt effective bulk shear supporting both multicell and some supercell structures. Evolution into one ore more clusters may occur as activity spreads southeast during the evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats with this activity. ...Upper Mississippi Valley through Great Lakes... Shortwave trough will continue through the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes Sunday, possibly accompanied by a weakening MCS early in the period. Tendency will be for this feature to outpace a cold front. The atmosphere downstream from the shortwave trough should become moderately unstable, and additional storms may develop during the afternoon along residual outflow boundaries and in association with ascent attending the shortwave trough. Potential will also exist for storms to develop upstream along the cold front across MN. Wind profiles will support mostly multicells, but the thermodynamic environment may become sufficient for a threat of mainly strong to damaging gusts and some hail. This region will continue to be monitored for a possible SLGT upgrade in day 1 updates. ..Dial.. 07/03/2021 Read more LIVE: