SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Dakotas during the late afternoon into evening. ...Central High Plains/Dakotas... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV will continue northeastward over North Dakota today and reach northwest Minnesota this evening, while modest-strength northwesterly mid-level winds otherwise become increasingly prevalent across the High Plains by peak heating. Some sharpening of lee-side troughing should occur today, particularly across the central High Plains. Thunderstorms should initially develop near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and Black Hills vicinity this afternoon and spread east-southeastward across the adjacent High Plains through late afternoon. These storms are likely to intensify as they encounter a warm/well-mixed and moderately unstable boundary layer characterized by MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective shear will be strongest across eastern Colorado with aid of stronger near-anvil northwesterly winds. Regardless, multicells will be prevalent and storms should regionally tend to cluster into southeastward-moving segments by early evening. Multiple sub-regional corridors of storms capable of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts can be expected through mid/late evening. Farther north, another corridor of potential severe thunderstorm development will be across eastern North Dakota in close proximity to the MCV. MCV-related forcing for ascent and some low/mid-level enhancement to wind profiles could influence severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon. That said, short-term questions persist regarding boundary-layer moisture quality and the degree of mixing through peak heating, which casts uncertainty regarding the timing/likelihood of severe storms and tornado potential. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 07/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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