SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across parts of southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin and northern Iowa on Monday, though severe potential is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ...Synopsis... A series of weak shortwave impulses will migrate through low-amplitude northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Deep layer flow will remain weak, with modest effective shear magnitudes expected. However, a seasonally moist airmass with moderate to strong instability will be in place ahead of a weak cold front across parts of southeast MN into WI and northern IA. Showers and thunderstorms will impacts parts of this area on Day 2/Sunday and may be ongoing at the beginning of the Day 3/Monday period, leading to some uncertainty in convective evolution later during the afternoon/evening. Compounded by generally weak forcing, uncertainty in severe potential remains too high to include probs at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks if a greater potential for damaging gusts becomes apparent. Scattered storms are also expected across parts of the central/southern High Plains as weak shortwave impulses migrate around the eastern periphery of the western upper anticyclone amid a moist and unstable airmass. Organized convection will be tempered by very weak shear, though steep low level lapse rates could support storms capable of gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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