SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible early tonight from parts of the northern Plains to western Lake Superior. ...Northern Plains to western Lake Superior... Mid-level heights are expected to fall across the northern US ahead of a short-wave trough that should dig southeast into MN after midnight. Influence of this upstream feature is beginning to aid mid-level convection across ND, and stronger surface-based storms developing along the front southwest of BIS into northwest SD. This activity should continue to expand east as the frontal zone advances downstream after sunset. 00z ABR sounding exhibited substantial instability with 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40kt surface-6km bulk shear. While extensive clouds have held the surface readings just below convective temperatures over this region, frontal convergence should prove adequate for additional development later this evening. Downstream across northeast MN, convection that developed across western ON into northern MN, ahead of a weak disturbance, has gradually sagged southeast over the last few hours. This activity should continue southeast toward western LS as heights are suppressed across the western Great Lakes. Isolated hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 07/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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